5 Threat 3: Institutional Instability 5 Threat 3: Institutional Instability
5.1 Background on Emerging Technology and Institutions 5.1 Background on Emerging Technology and Institutions
5.1.1 Guiding Questions 5.1.1 Guiding Questions
- What makes institutions resilient when confronted with emerging technology?
- To what extent is AI a dual-use technology concerning democratic institutions and participation?
- Is there a danger of overestimating the impact of AI on democratic institutions?
5.1.2 Readings (Recommended and Assigned) 5.1.2 Readings (Recommended and Assigned)
Required Readings
- Special Comm. on A.I. in a Digit. Age, AIDA Working Paper on AI and the Future of Democracy', European Parliament (2021), available at https://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/237002/Working%20Paper%20on%20AI%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Democracy.pdf
- [Read 28-29 & 43-49] Brundage et al., The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation, EFF (2018), available at https://www.eff.org/files/2018/02/20/malicious_ai_report_final.pdf
- Laurie A. Schintler & Connie L. McNeely, Artificial Intelligence, Institutions, and Resilience: Prospects and Provocations for Cities, 11 J. Urb. Mang. 256 (2022), https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2226585622000322
- NICK BOSTROM ET AL., Public Policy and Superintelligent AI: A Vector Field Approach, OXFORD UNIV. PRESS (2020), available at https://nickbostrom.com/papers/aipolicy.pdf
- JANNA ANDERSON & LEE RAINIE, THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNET ON INSTITUTIONS IN THE FUTURE, PEW RSCH. CTR. (2010), available at https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2010/03/31/the-impact-of-the-internet-on-institutions-in-the-future-2/
Recommended Reading
- Bruce Schneier et al., How Artificial Intelligence Can Aid Democracy, SLATE (Apr. 21, 2023,10:30 AM), https://slate.com/technology/2023/04/ai-public-option.html
- James Ellis & George Shultz, Observations from the Roundtable: Emerging Technology and America's National Security, HOOVER INST. (Feb. 25, 2019), https://www.hoover.org/research/observations-roundtable-emerging-technology-and-americas-national-security
5.1.3 Exercise 5.1.3 Exercise
- In groups, based on Bollyky’s article, write a memo to the White House Chief of Staff on what legal and policy responses to AI will retain (if not deepen) the public’s trust in the federal government.
5.2 Autocracy, Social Control, and AI 5.2 Autocracy, Social Control, and AI
5.2.1 Guiding Questions 5.2.1 Guiding Questions
- Why might AI favor autocratic regimes over democratic regimes? What institutional design choices by autocratic regimes explain concerns about autocracies and misuse of AI?
- Do AI tools have any role in deliberative discourse? If so, what measures could protect fundamental rights? When and if should absolute bans be considered in light of threats to democratic values?
5.2.2 Readings (Recommended and Assigned) 5.2.2 Readings (Recommended and Assigned)
Required Reading
- Sarah Kreps & Douglas Kriner, How Generative AI Impacts Democratic Engagement, BROOKINGS (Mar. 21, 2023), https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/how-generative-ai-impacts-democratic-engagement/
- [Read 1-29] Martin Beraja et al., AI-tocracy, 138 THE Q. J. OF ECON. 1349 (2023), https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/138/3/1349/7076890
- Dirk Helbing et al., Will Democracy Survive Big Data and Artificial Intelligence?, SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN (Feb. 25, 2017), https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/will-democracy-survive-big-data-and-artificial-intelligence/
- [Read 14-29] David Leslie et al, Artificial Intelligence, Human Rights, Democracy, and the Rule of Law, Council of Eur. (2021), https://www.turing.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2021-03/cahai_feasibility_study_primer_final.pdf
- Patrick Grady, Extending AI Act's Ban on Social Scoring to the Private Sector Will Hurt Consumers, CENTER FOR DATA INNOVATION (Jan. 11, 2023), https://datainnovation.org/2023/01/extending-ai-acts-ban-on-social-scoring-to-the-private-sector-will-hurt-consumers/
Recommended Reading
- Nicholas D. Wright, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND DEMOCRATIC NORMS, NAT'L. ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY (2020), available at https://www.ned.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Artificial-Intelligence-Democratic-Norms-Meeting-Authoritarian-Challenge-Wright.pdf
- William A. Carter, Fear, Democracy, and the Future of Artificial Intelligence, CSIS (Oct. 11, 2017), https://www.csis.org/analysis/fear-democracy-and-future-artificial-intelligence
- Benjamin Cedric Larsen, The Geopolitics of AI and the Rise of Digital Sovereignty, BROOKINGS (Dec. 8, 2022), https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-geopolitics-of-ai-and-the-rise-of-digital-sovereignty/
5.2.3 Exercise 5.2.3 Exercise
- Work in groups to predict how AI will affect the Chinese judicial system.
5.3 International Order 5.3 International Order
5.3.1 Guiding Questions 5.3.1 Guiding Questions
- How does AI disruption to the international order pose an existential threat?
- To what extent can current international bodies and treatises ensure international stability in light of AI development?
- How seriously should the international community take the threat of an AI Arms Race?
5.3.2 Readings (Recommended and Assigned) 5.3.2 Readings (Recommended and Assigned)
Required Readings
- Angela Kane and Wendell Wallach, Artificial Intelligence Is Already Upending Geopolitics, TECHCRUNCH (Apr. 6, 2022, 9:24 AM), https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/06/artificial-intelligence-is-already-upending-geopolitics/
- Paul Scharre, Debunking the AI Arms Race Theory, 4 TEX. NAT'L SEC. REV. (2021), available at https://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/handle/2152/87035
- Joanna J. Bryson & Helena Malikova, Is There an AI Cold War?, 2 GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES 1, (2021), available at https://online.ucpress.edu/gp/article/2/1/24803/117647/Is-There-an-AI-Cold-War
- [Skim Sec. 1, Sec. 3 & Sec. 4] Jeffrey Ding, Deciphering China's AI Dream, CENTRE FOR THE GOVERNANCE OF AI (2018) https://cdn.governance.ai/Deciphering_Chinas_AI-Dream.pdf
- [Read pg. 151-164 & 206-218] Colin B. Picker, A View from 40,000 Feet: International Law and the Invisible Hand of Technology, 232 CARDOZO LAW REVIEW 149 (2001), available at https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=987524
Recommended Readings
- Matthis M. Maas, International Law Does Not Compute: Artificial Intelligence and the Development, Displacement or Destruction of the Global Legal Order, 3 MELB. J. lNT'L. LAW 29 (2019), available at http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/MelbJIL/2019/3.html
- WILLIAM C. HANNAS ET AL., CHINA'S ADVANCED AI RESEARCH, CSET (2022), available at https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/chinas-advanced-ai-research/
- Mesut Özcan, Will China Become the World’s Technology Superpower?, THE NAT'L INTEREST (Feb. 11, 2023), https://nationalinterest.org/blog/techland-when-great-power-competition-meets-digital-world/will-china-become-world%E2%80%99s-technology
- MATTHEW DANIELS & BEN CHANG, NATIONAL POWER AFTER AI, CSET (2021), available at https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/national-power-after-ai/
5.3.3 Exercise 5.3.3 Exercise
- What is the "digital oligopoly" as defined by Kane & Wallach? Why do they anticipate that these oligopolists will have more power over geopolitics as AI becomes more widespread and powerful? Do the authors offer any solutions? Which solutions would you offer to maintaining a stable international community in light of AI?
- https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/06/artificial-intelligence-is-already-upending-geopolitics/